As US President Joe Biden planned a risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top advisers believed they had reached a secret deal with the Saudis to increase oil production by the end of the year – a deal that could have justified breaching the promise made by Biden during the presidential campaign to treat the crown prince more coldly, writes The New York Times. The American plan did not work.
Biden went to Saudi Arabia, but the Middle Eastern kingdom and Russia this month convinced oil-producing countries to vote to cut production by 2 million barrels a day — a turnout totally opposite to the plan of the Biden administration that had hoped the secret deal would help to ameliorate problems with inflation and high gas prices.
The Saudis’ decision prompted US officials to reassess the US relationship with Saudi Arabia and produced a series of sour statements between the two governments, including the White House’s accusation that the Saudi kingdom is helping Russia in the war in Ukraine.
What has happened in the past six months is a tale of broken promises, dashed hopes, misinterpreted signals and scapegoat hunters.
Far from rebuilding a relationship with a leader who Biden said he would treat as a “pariah” after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the result has been that US-Saudi relations have now reached a critical point.
The episode also shows how Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of the ambitious and often ruthless Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, appears willing to shed some of its dependence on the Americans, with the Saudi leader keen to turn the kingdom into a regional power it seems
Another increase in oil prices could follow in December
Meanwhile, US officials are bracing for another possible price hike in December, when the European embargo on Russian oil would take effect and the Saudis refuse to increase oil production to fill the gap left by Russian supplies.
US officials say that would be a clear signal that the Saudis are helping the Russians by undermining the plan devised by the Europeans and Americans.
Some analysts say that senior officials in Washington and Riyadh have misinterpreted their intentions regarding both the oil market and the geopolitics surrounding Russia, and the Biden administration will have a tough time ahead as it must try to figure out why things went so badly.
“Deconstructing Saudi policymakers has now become Kremlinology on steroids,” said Hussein Ibish, an academic at the Gulf States Institute in Washington. “It became a matter of a small group of people around the king and the crown prince. Even some of the most well-informed people in the US don’t know most of the time.”
The White House has indicated it may retaliate against the Saudis for cutting oil production, and some Democrats in Congress have pushed for the US to cut military and economic ties to the kingdom.
